Venezuela, Contras, and Imperialism
Background to the contraction of the Venezuelan
economy
Venezuela lacks sufficient hard
currency. A hard currency is a monetary system that is widely
accepted around the world as a form of payment for goods and services. A hard currency is expected to remain relatively stable
through a short period of time, and to be highly liquid in the forex or foreign
exchange. Examples of hard currencies are dollars, euros, and gold.
It did not matter who was president of Venezuela at the time that the price of oil dropped. There would have been a restriction of hard currency as less money came into the country.
Ninety-five percent (95%) of
Venezuela hard currency comes from the sale of oil
Since the
price of oil has declined over the last five years, the amount of Venezuela’s
hard currency has also declined. There is less money to buy food, medicine, and
spare parts. The lack of essential goods has been made worse by the sanctions
imposed on Venezuela by the United States and other countries.
With the
decline in hard currency Venezuela took out loans (hard currency) from IMF and
the World Bank. As the price of oil continued to decline the repayment of the
loans became harder, leading to a further contraction of the economy.
Venezuela has tried to renegotiate the loans, but the banks have refused to cooperate citing US and EU sanctions. Because of these sanctions both the EU and the United States are partially responsible for the humanitarian crisis.
Humanitarian Crisis
Shortages of essential goods have forced many
people in Venezuela to seek relief outside the country. In effect they have become economic refugees.
The EU and USA sanctions are partially responsible. Bad policy decisions by
Maduro are also to blame. The underlying system of trade for profit is the main
disruptive force.
To a certain
extent it does not matter who is the president of Venezuela. The people will
suffer. Oil price will fluctuate. The banks will make loans. The imperialist
powers will send in their militaries and their proxies. War will make the
suffering of the people worse. A reasonable person only has to look at Syria
and Yemen to see the suffering of the people. Only the bosses win imperialist
wars.
Civil War and the Hope for the People
The recent
attempt by Guaido to seize power has for the moment failed. He and his allies
tried to preempt the May Day rallies. Many people in Venezuela are a part of
neighborhood and village collectives and celebrate May Day.
The Guaido media sources all say that Maduro is supported only by the military. The collectives also support him unfortunately. The people of Venezuela need a government that break the controls of the imperialists and their bank over their lives.
Any further
attempt to overthrow Maduro will be heavily depended on military aid from the
United States. It seems like Guaido will try next to organize militias from the
camps of economic refugees. This would be the beginnings a “Contra” army
similar to that group who fought the Sandinistas in Nicaragua and was financed
by Reagan in the Iran Contra scandal.
Hopefully I
am wrong.
